Week 11 Football Upsets to Watch Out For

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current lines at the Caesars Sportsbook.

Carolina (+3.0) vs. Atlanta- (Th) 8:00– The Panthers were an extra point away from upsetting the Falcons on the road a few weeks ago, so I don’t see why they can’t finish the job at home on Thursday night.
Georgia Southern (+3.0) at UL-Lafayette- (Th) 7:30– I believe the Eagles are the better team here playing the better football in this battle of first year coaches.
North Texas (+6.0) at UAB- 3:30– The Mean Green are on fire right now with five blowout victories and narrow road loss to the league leader, UTSA, in their past six games. And while I do think UAB is due a big win after several heartbreaking losses over the past few weeks, North Texas is definitely good enough to go into Birmingham in win.
Syracuse (+6.5) vs. Florida State- 8:00– The likelihood of this upset will depend greatly on the health of Garrett Shrader who is questionable or Saturday’s game. If he plays, however, I see no reason the Orange can’t spring the upset in this one.
Purdue (+6.5) at Illinois- 12:00– I picked the Boilermakers to win this game and this division in the preseason, and I am going to stick with both of those predictions. I think the fairy dust may have worn off in Champaign after last week’s upset loss to Michigan State.
LA Chargers (+7.0) at San Francisco- (Sun) 8:20– This line really surprised me as I think the Chargers are more talented and certainly more explosive than the 49ers. The Thunderbolts have also played really well on the road season with three outright wins and two narrow loses, one of which was to Kansas City.
TCU (+7.0) at Texas- 7:30– I get that the Longhorns are playing really good football right now, but TCU has owned Texas over the past few years with six wins in the last eight meetings, including three out of the last four in Austin. Are you telling me that now TCU fields the fourth best team in the country, they can’t do the exact same thing to Texas that these inferior Horned Frog teams did?
West Virginia (+8.0) vs. Oklahoma- 12:00– This is the first of five upsets that I predicted in the preseason to happen during week 11, and I am sticking with each of the four that are still considered upsets (the Marshall/App spread is too close to call that an upset anymore). The Mountaineers always seem to pull off one win they shouldn’t every year in Morgantown, and I think their big 2022 home upset will come this Saturday.
UNLV (+9.5) vs. Fresno State- (Fri) 10:30– This is the second of the five upsets that I predicted in the preseason for this week, and I like UNLV here as they have played well at home this season (3-1 record) and Fresno has struggled on the road (1-3 record including loss to UConn).
Ole Miss (+12.0) vs. Alabama-3:30- The third and fourth upsets that I predicted in the preseason for this week are both doozies, but I don’t see any reason why Ole Miss can’t knock off this Tide team at home that is reeling after two losses in the past three weeks and has played poorly on the road all season. I understand that historically Alabama plays really well coming off a loss under Saban, but I am not sure this team will react in the same way now that all their championship hopes have gone by the wayside.
Rice (+13.0) at Western Kentucky- 2:00- This game reminds me a lot of the Hilltoppers game a couple of weeks ago when they were double digit home favorites against North Texas and then proceeded to lay an egg. Rice isn’t quite as good as the Mean Green, but they have had a surprise run of success this year including a win over perennial power UAB. The Owls also have a ton to play for, as one more win gets them to bowl eligibility for the first time in 8 years.
FIU (+15.5) vs. FAU- 7:00– This line shouldn’t be nearly this high, as the Panthers are one of the the most improved teams in the country under first year coach Mike MacIntyre. Meanwhile, FAU has floundered in the land of mediocrity in 2022 and has failed to win a road game this entire season. Add the fact that this is a rivalry game to the mix and you have all the ingredients for a major uspet.
Miss. State (+16.5) vs. Georgia- 7:00– The last of the week 11 upsets that I predicted in the preseason would be massive, but this seems like the perfect time to play Georgia after their landmark win last Saturday against Tennessee. Also, keep in mind that Mike Leach’s squad is undefeated at home this season (5-0), and they gave the Dawgs all they could handle between the hedges two seasons ago. Mike Leach is still searching for that signature win over an elite SEC team, and I think it may come Saturday in Starkville.

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: NC State (+4.5) vs. Wake Forest (my poor Deacs are falling apart!)


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