Brad’s 2022 College Football Preview- Regular Season Upset Picks

Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season.  This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 16th annual college football preview guide which will contain 18 entries in all. Over the past six seasons, I have made my college football offseason more expansive by predicting the outcome of every single game that is played by every FBS team over the course of the upcoming season.  I obviously sprinkle a few upsets in there when favored teams matchup poorly with inferior opponents or play them at inopportune times.  Last season, a record 11 of my 25 predicted upsets hit! Those correct picks included: South Dakota State’s triumph over Colorado State, West Virginia’s upset of Iowa State, Michigan State’s shocking defeat of Michigan, and Missouri’s huge win over Florida. This year’s upset picks are listed below in chronological order, and the ten upset picks that will be the most impactful to the college football playoff picture are marked in bold.  Also, the (H), (A), and (N) monikers written on each line represents whether or not the the team pulling off the upset is playing the game at home, away from home, or at a neutral site.  This year I have also included my comments as to why I think each upset will happen.


Preseason Upset Picks of the YearComment:
1Appalachian State over North Carolina (H)- Sept 3Heels will be good this year but this is a terrible spot to break-in two new QBs.
2Arizona over Mississippi State (H)- Sept 10You can always count on Leach to lay a huge egg in a non-conference game or two each season
3Stanford over USC (H)- Sept 10Cardinal seemingly own Trojans and matchup well against them this year.
4UTSA over Texas (A)- Sept 17Bad positional matchups for Texas and this is UTSA’s game of the century
5Jacksonville State over Tulsa (A)- Sept 17Golden Hurricane lost to a worse FCS team last year in a similar spot.
6Miami-OH over Northwestern (A)- Sept 24Redhawks have won 5 of the last 7 in this series and will be really good this year.
7UL- Monroe over UL-Lafayette (H)- Sept 24Warhawks always play Cajuns tough and without Napierin place they pull off the upset.
8Maryland over Michigan State (H)- Oct 1Bad positional matchups for Spartans
9Kansas over Iowa State (H)- Oct 1Jayhawks too good not to knock someone off in Big 12 play
10Iowa over Michigan (H)- Oct 1Bad road matchup for Wolverines
11Akron over Central Michigan (H)- Oct 15Bad matchups for Chippewas; Moorhead too good of a coach not to beat somebody in MAC play.
12Virginia over Miami-FL (H)- Oct 29Bad matchup for the Canes
13Syracuse over Notre Dame (H)- Oct 29ND in look ahead spot to Clemson game the following week
14UCF over Cincy (H)- Oct 29Bounce House gives Malzahn his biggest win in his new tenure
15Penn State over Ohio State (H)- Oct 29Bad positional matchups + white out = upset
16Purdue over Iowa (H)- Nov 5Purdue has won last 2 and bad positional matchups for Iowa
17Mississippi State over Georgia (H)- Nov 12You can always count on Leach’s Air Raid to outscore someone they shouldn’t ever year.
18West Virginia over Oklahoma (H)- Nov 12Mountaineers are always good for one home upset every year.
19UNLV over Fresno (H)- Nov 12Improved Rebels trap Fresno in bad spot with bad positional matchups
20Ole Miss over Alabama (H)- Nov 12Kiffin finally gets Saban thanks to brutal stretch of back to back road games for the Tide.
21Marshall over App State (H)- Nov 12The Herd will be hitting their stride just in time to catch App napping after this win over Coastal.
22East Carolina over Houston (H)- Nov 19Pirates give the Cougars their only loss of the season
23Western Ky over Auburn (A)- Nov 19Bad matchups (Tigers struggel to defense pass) and bad spot for Auburn (between Texas A & M and Bama games)
24Coastal Carolina over Virginia (A)- Nov 19Coastal program has done everything except knock off Power 5 program. Time for that to change.
25UNC over NC State (H)- Nov 25This rivalry always produces unpredictable outcomes

My three biggest upsets that I have predicted for this year are Penn State over Ohio State (October 29), Mississippi State over Georgia (November 12), and Ole Miss over Alabama (November 12). All three favorites in those games will enter those contests unbeaten and subsequently suffer their only regular season losses.


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