Week 11 College Football (Against the Spread) Picks

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident. Lines are based on the current spreads at the Caesars Sportsbook.

Texas Tech (-3.5) vs. Kansas- 7:00– I was all over my lock of the week pick last week as Georgia dismantled Tennessee just as I predicted. Now, I am just as confident in the Red Raiders this week, as I was in the Dawgs in week 10. Kansas had their high and got their bowl eligibility last Saturday, but now they go on the road and play a Texas Tech that is hungry for its own bowl bid and needs to win two out of their last three games to get there. Keep in mind that the Longhorns couldn’t find a way to win in Lubbock, so I don’t expect Kansas to either. Raiders by at least a touchdown.
Cincinnati (-5.0) vs. East Carolina- (Fri) 8:00- I have been high on the Pirates all season, but I think they are still a rung below the AAC’s top teams: UCF, Cincy, and Tulane. Nippert Stadium is also a tough place to play, especially at night in November, so I think the Bearcats win here comfortably.
UNLV (+9.5) vs. Fresno State- (Fri) 10:30– This is the second of the five upsets that I predicted in the preseason for this week, and I like UNLV here as they have played well at home this season (3-1 record) and Fresno has struggled on the road (1-3 record including loss to UConn).
FIU (+15.5) vs. FAU- 7:00– This line shouldn’t be nearly this high, as the Panthers are one of the the most improved teams in the country under first year coach Mike MacIntyre. Meanwhile, FAU has floundered in the land of mediocrity in 2022 and has failed to win a road game this entire season. Add the fact that this is a rivalry game to the mix and you have all the ingredients for a major upset.
Bowling Green (+2.5) v. Kent State- (Wed) 7:00- I am going to get into some mid-week MAC-tion in this one, as Bowling Green has been the surprise team in the league this season. The Falcons have had six straight seasons with four wins or less but now find themselves a game from bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, Kent State is one of the top disappointment teams in this league, as they fallen along way from their division title last season. Kent State is also 0-5 on the road this season, so I am giving the edge here to Bowling Green.
Memphis (-6.5) vs. Tulsa- (Th) 7:30– Both of these teams have disappointed to a certain extent in 2022, but the Tigers are due a big victory after four straight one possession losses. They also have a lot more to play for, as they still have realistic bowl hopes in 2022, unlike the Golden Hurricane.
Clemson (-7.0) vs. Louisville- 3:30– I know Louisville is red hot right now, but Clemson is in a great spot for a strong bounce back effort at home after their demoralizing loss to Notre Dame last Saturday.
North Texas (+6.0) at UAB- 3:30– Speaking or red hot, there may not be a team hotter in the country than the Mean Green of North Texas. They have had five blowout victories and one narrow road loss to the league leader, UTSA, in their past six games. And while I do think UAB is due a big win after several heartbreaking losses over the past few weeks, North Texas is definitely good enough to go into Birmingham and pull off this upset.
Rice (+13.0) at Western Kentucky- 2:00– This game reminds me a lot of the Hilltoppers game a couple of weeks ago when they were double digit home favorites against North Texas and then proceeded to lay an egg. Rice isn’t quite as good as the Mean Green, but they have had a surprise run of success this year including a win over perennial power UAB. The Owls also have a ton to play for, as one more win gets them to bowl eligibility for the first time in 8 years.
Missouri (+21.0) at Tennessee- 12:00– I get that Tennessee is at home in a bounce back spot here, but Missouri has played everyone in the SEC close this season. They are a scrappy, defensive-minded bunch that will take advantage of a sleepy noon kickoff in Knoxville and hang around in this one for longer than they should.

Last Week’s Record: 6-4


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