These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current lines at the Caesars Sportsbook.
|Missouri (+3.0) vs. Arkansas- (Fri) 3:30– One trend you will see throughout this list and my college football picks list is that I give great deference 5-6 teams that are playing for bowl bids this week. That is because these teams have outperformed expectations on rivalry weekend over the years due to the fact they typically have a lot more to play for than their opposition. That is certainly the case here as Mizzou is playing for a bowl bid at home, while Arkansas has already attained bowl eligibility. |
|Georgia Southern (+4.5) vs. App. State- 6:00– see comment about Missouri/Arkansas above|
|Texas State (+5.0) vs. UL-Lafayette- 5:00– So this pick actually goes against the aforementioned trend because UL-Lafayette is the team playing for bowl eligibility here, while Texas State will be ending their season on Saturday regardless of what happens in this one. Nevertheless, I think the Bobcats will continue to play hard for Head Coach Jake Spavital and consequently end their season the right way with an upset victory at home against the Ragin’ Cajuns.|
|Notre Dame (+5.5) at Southern Cal- 7:30– The Irish have already dampened the playoff hopes for UNC and Clemson this season, and I don’t see any reason why they can’t go into the Coliseum and do the same to USC on Saturday night. |
Miami-FL (+6.5) vs. Pittsburgh – 8:00– I know the Canes have struggled the past several weeks, but they are playing this one at home with bowl eligibility on the line against a Pitt team that has also underachieved in 2022. I think the U wins this one outright.
|Florida Atlantic (+7.5) vs. Western Kentucky- 12:00– See comment above from Missouri/Arkansas and Georgia Southern/App State games.|
|New Mexico (+7.5) at Colorado State- (Fri) 3:30– Both of these teams are really bad, but I think the Rams are actually the worst of the two teams. CSU’s only two wins were narrow victories against bad Hawaii and Nevada teams, and New Mexico at least beat a mediocre UTEP squad.|
|Temple (+10.0) vs. East Carolina- 1:00– Any ECU fan will tell you that Temple’s Lincoln Financial Field has been a house of horrors for the Pirates as they are just 1-3 in their last four trips to Philly. The Owls have also improved quite a bit as the season has progressed, and I can see this being a game that East Carolina doesn’t really get up for.|
|Florida (+10.5) at Florida State- (Fri) 7:30- The Noles have looked good the past few weeks, but until Florida State can prove that it can beat its arch rival from Gainesville, they’re 0-3 this decade against the Gators, then Florida has the psychological advantage in this rivalry game.|
|Boston College (+10.5) vs. Syracuse- 7:30– The wheels have come off for the Orange, as they are riding a 5 game losing streak after a 6-0 start. BC, on the other hand, has played much better football down the stretch of the season, as evidenced by their upset win in Raleigh two weeks ago.|
|Coastal Carolina (+14.0) at James Madison- 12:00– This line seems crazy to me as the Chants don’t get blown out by anybody. Obviously, Vegas is giving a lot of weight to the injuries of Quarterback Grayson McCall and Receiver Jared Brown, but I feel like Chants’ Coach Jamey Chadwell will come up with a game plan that will keep Coastal in the game and give them a chance at the upset. |
|Northwestern (+14.5) vs. Illinois- 3:30– Wouldn’t it be fitting if Northwestern began its season with an upset win in August in Ireland and then ended its season with a home upset over Illinois, despite losing all ten games sandwiched between those two victories? It definitely seems plausible given the way Illinois has floundered down the stretch of the season, as the Illini come into this one riding a three game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have played well in recent losses against mighty Ohio State and at Purdue.|
Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Hawaii (+11.0) over UNLV (The Rainbow Warriors pull of the upset as a double digit home dog just as I predicted!)