Bowl Bubble Watch- Final Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the thirteenth consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid, not necessarily a team’s off of actually being invited to a bowl game.  That is because some years there are more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids and several bowl eligible teams don’t get to go bowling.  Other years, there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill every bowl game, so 5-7 teams are invited to bowl games based on their APR.  Then, we have years like last year where it works out perfectly and there is an equivalent number of bowl bids as bowl eligible teams.   

All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there is 1 team on the list with 1 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 0 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 80 bowl eligible teams for 2022 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 82 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, we know that there will be either 2 or 3 bowl bids which would have to be filled by teams with a 5-7 record.  The top two APR schools with 5-7 records are: Rice (994) and UNLV (984), so both of those teams will be going bowling despite their losing records.  If Buffalo loses to Akron and a third team with a losing record becomes bowl eligible, then it will get interesting because both Auburn and Michigan State are tied for the next highest APR score among 5-7 teams at 983.  I would assume, however, that since Auburn is likely going to be in the middle of a coaching transition that they may not be as interested in a bowl bid as Michigan State.  This list is updated through all games played on November 26th.  Also, be on the look out for annual bowl projections which will be published later on today.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (1):

Buffalo– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Akron; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 80% (previous odds: 93%, 86%, 56%)

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (0):

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Already Bowl Eligible (79):  (1) Clemson, (2) NC State, (3) Duke, (4) Florida State, (5) Louisville, (6) North Carolina, (7) Syracuse, (8) Wake Forest, (9) Cincinnati, (10) East Carolina, (11) Tulane, (12) UCF, (13) Illinois, (14) Maryland, (15) Michigan, (16) Minnesota, (17) Ohio State, (18), Penn State, (19) Baylor, (20) Kansas, (21) Kansas State, (22) Oklahoma State, (23) TCU, (24) Texas, (25) North Texas, (26) UTSA, (27) Western Kentucky, (28) Eastern Michigan, (29) Ohio, (30) Toledo, (31) Air Force, (32) Boise State, (33) San Jose State, (34) Wyoming, (35) Oregon, (36) Oregon State, (37) UCLA, (38) Southern Cal, (39) Utah, (40) Washington, (41) Alabama, (42) Georgia, (43) Kentucky, (44) LSU, (45) Mississippi State, (46) Ole Miss, (47) South Carolina, (48) Tennessee, (49) Coastal Carolina, (50) South Alabama, (51) Troy, (52) Liberty, (53) Notre Dame, (54) Fresno State (previous odds: 94%), (55) Houston (previous odds: 95%), (56) San Diego State (previous odds: 92%), (57) SMU (previous odds: 87%), (58) Purdue (previous odds: 86%), (59) Florida (previous odds: 85%), (60) Washington State (previous odds: 84%), (61) Iowa (previous odds: 76%), (62) Pittsburgh (previouds odds; 75%), (63) Marshall (previous odds: 60%), (64) UConn (previous odds: 23%), (65) Bowling Green (previous odds: 52%, 43%) (66) Brigham Young (previous odds: 99.9%, 99.9%), (67) Memphis (previous odds: 71%, 98%), (68) Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 68%, 78%), (69) Wisconsin (previous odds: 74%, 66%), (70) Utah State (previous odds: 47%, 48%), (71) Arkansas (previous odds: 58%, 57%), (72) Texas Tech (previous odds: 51%, 56%), (73) Oklahoma (previous odds: 72%, 54%), (74) Miami-OH (previous odds: 44%, 44%, 52%), (75) Missouri  (previous odds: 48%, 47%, 49%), (76) UAB (previous odds: 53%, 64%, 63%), (77) UL-Lafayette (previous odds: 46%, 58%, 57%), (78) Southern Miss (previous odds: 61%, 60%, 54%), (79) Georgia Southern (previous odds: 54%, 46%, 38%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (51):  (1) Boston College, (2) Virginia Tech, (3) South Florida, (4) Northwestern, (5) Charlotte, (6) Akron, (7) Northern Illinois, (8) Colorado State, (9) Hawaii, (10) Nevada, (11) New Mexico, (12) Colorado, (13) Arkansas State, (14) James Madison- FCS transition, (15) UMass, (16) Western Michigan (previous odds: 21%), (17) Tulsa (previous odds: 10%), (18) Texas A & M (previous odds: 30%), (19) Virginia (previous odds: 24%), (20) Indiana (previous odds:<0.1%), (21) Arizona State (previous odds: 16%), (22) Texas State (previous odds: 14%), (23) Old Dominion (previous odds: 9%), (24) California (previous odds: 5%), (25) Louisiana Tech (previous odds: 4%), (26) Navy (previous odds: 3%), (27) Stanford, (previous odds: 2.5%), (28) Temple (previous odds: 1%), (29) Nebraska (previous odds: 0.3%), (30) Kent State (previous odds: 20%, 32%), (31) Central Michigan (previous odds: 27%, 41%), (32) UL-Monroe (previous odds: 8%, 26%), (33) UNLV (previous odds: 62%, 59%), (34) Arizona (previous odds: 2%, 31%), (35) West Virginia (previous odds: 13%, 28%), (36) Iowa State (previous odds: 40%, 21%), (37) Georgia State (previous odds: 35%, 18%), (38) FIU (previous odds: 19%, 16%), (39) Rutgers (previous odds: 18%, 5%), (40) New Mexico State (previous odds: 0.1%, 0.3%), (41) Ball State (previous odds: 55%, 55%, 48%), (42) Army (previous odds: 49%, 45%, 47%), (43) Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 56%, 65%, 43%), (44) Michigan State (previous odds: 65%, 73%, 21%), (45) Rice (previous odds: 32%, 20%, 19%), (46) UTEP (previous odds: 11%, 11%, 15%), (47) Auburn (previous odds: 6%, 8%, 12%), (48) Georgia Tech (previous odds: 22%, <0.1%, 1%), (49) Appalachian State (previous odds: 66%, 63%, 62%), (50) Miami-FL (previous odds: 38%, 52%, 51%), (51) Vanderbilt (previous odds: 0.2%, 1%, 7%)

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Current Stats (131 FBS Teams):

Already Bowl Eligible: 79

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 1  (80)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 51

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 0 (51)

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