For the 15th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly columns late in the season which analyze all of  the FBS conference championship races. Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bolded teams have already clinched their division or conference. Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on November 9, 2024.

ACC- SMU/Miami-FL (We basically have a three team race between SMU, Clemson, and Miami-FL for two spots in the ACC title game, although Louisville and Pitt are still in the running.  The Mustangs are in the best position to get there as they are last of the remaining conference unbeatens.  They just need to get by BC, Virginia, and Cal in three games they will be heavily favored to win, in order to lock in a spot to Charlotte.  The other spot will likely come down to the two preseason league favorites, Clemson and Miami.  The Tigers and Canes both have one conference loss but should win the remainder of their league games.  If that happens, then Miami will earn the second title game spot by virtue of having the better record against the presumed highest ranked common opponent in the league, Louisville).  

Big 12– BYU/Iowa State (We knew pretty early on in the season that the Big 12 title race was going to be wild and it has certainly delivered.  Right now, BYU and Colorado are in the catbird seats as every over team has picked up two league losses.  The Cougars from Provo should be able to hold to one of their spots as they just need to win two of their final three contests against Kansas, Arizona State, and Houston.  Colorado has less margin for error as they already have a conference loss.  They do still control their own destiny but beating Utah, Kansas, and Oklahoma State is not an easy task.  I predict the Buffs lose to the Jayhakws during their upcoming trip to Lawrence which will put them in a tie with Iowa State for the second title game spot, if the Cyclones win out.  Iowa State will likely win that tiebreaker over the Buffs by having a better record against Kansas State, so I am calling for the Cyclones to join the Cougars in this year’s conference title game.)

Big Ten- Oregon/Ohio State (The Big Ten title race will be decided between Indiana, Oregon, Ohio, State, and Penn State, and unlike the aforementioned conferences, it may end up being fairly simple.  If the Ducks knock off Wisconsin and Washington in two games they will be heavily favored to win, they will clinch one of the two title game spots.  Then, the other spot will likely be decided on November 23rd when Indiana and Ohio State play each other in what should essentially be a de facto conference title play-in game.  The Nittany Lions are still technically in the mix but need a lot of help.)

SEC- Texas/Alabama (The wild and crazy bloodbath that continues to be the SEC title race should have many more twists and turns over the final few weeks of the season.  Right now, there are no less than eight SEC teams that have two conference losses or less and are in the mix for a trip to Atlanta.  Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A & M share the current lead with only one conference loss.  Meanwhile, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU are all hanging around with two losses.  Texas and Texas A & M will renew their bitter in-state rivalry on November 30th in what should be a de facto conference title play-in game.  And even though that game will be in College Station, I give the Longhorns a slight edge there given their tremendous talent and experience.  The other spot in Atlanta will almost certainly come down to a tiebreaker between two multiple loss teams.  Right now, I am predicting those teams to be Texas A & M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, and LSU.  The applicable tiebreaker at that point will be cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams, which at this point would narrowly go to the Crimson Tide.)

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American– Tulane/Army (The American title chase is basically a three team race between Tulane and the two service academies, though Memphis and East Carolina are still technically in the running.  Army and Tulane are both undefeated but the Black Knights have played an extra league game and thus have the advantage at 7-0.  All they will need to do is beat UTSA at home on November 30th and they will clinch one of the two title game spots.  Meanwhile, Tulane plays at Navy next weekend in what will basically be a de facto play-in game for an AAC title game spot.  The Green Wave will clinch they spot if they come away with a victory in Annapolis.  Navy, on the other hand, will still likely have to beat ECU in Greenville on the 29th to clinch the second championship game spot if they get past Tulane next Saturday.)    

Conference USA– Western Kentucky/Jacksonville State (This conference title race has really opened up in the past few weeks following the collapse of the heavily favored Liberty Flames.  Now, Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State share the C-USA lead at 5-0, while Sam Houston is a game back at 4-1.  The Flames are still technically in the running for the conference crown, but they are on the outside looking in with two conference losses.  Interestingly enough, all four of these teams each play two more games against one another in the final few weeks of the season, so a lot can still happen.  I am predicting that ultimately WKU gets one of the conference title spots by splitting their games against Liberty and Jacksonville State.  The second spot will then go to Jacksonville State who I believe will split their final two contests against Sam Houston and the aforementioned Hilltoppers.)    

MAC- Bowling Green/Toledo  (No other league in FBS has quite as much parity as the MAC, who currently has a four team tie atop its conference standings between Miami-OH, Ohio, Bowling Green, and Western Michigan with two other teams sitting just a game back (Buffalo and Toledo).  I believe one title game spot will go to Bowling Green who I believe will win out and end up as the lone one loss MAC team.  I am then predicting that the second conference title game spot will come down to a tiebreaker between multiple two loss teams.  I believe that Miami-OH will be one of those teams involved in that tiebreakers, as I am calling them split games between Northern Illinois and Bowling Green down the stretch.  Meanwhile, I believe Ohio will also have two losses by virtue of a road loss to Toledo and home wins over Ball State and Eastern Michigan.  I am calling for Western Michigan to also drop one game down the stretch and then for Toledo to win out to create a four way tie for second place between Miami-OH, Ohio, Western, Michigan, and Toledo.  The applicable tiebreaker would be the same as the SEC, cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents, which right now would narrowly go to the Rockets of Toledo.)  

Mountain West– Boise State/UNLV  (In the MWC title race, the Broncos all but have one of the two conference championship game spots locked down as all they need to do is beat either San Jose or Wyoming to clinch. Colorado State is the other Mountain West unbeaten, and while the Rams should handle Utah State and Wyoming down the stretch, I think they probably drop their road trip to Fresno on November 23rd. This will put them in a tie against UNLV for the second title game spot, assuming UNLV wins out. And because these two teams don’t play each other in the regular season, the Mountain West’s applicable tiebreaker will, strangely enough, be who has the better overall record, which would be UNLV, who has one less overall loss than the Rams. I have never heard of such a tiebreaker being used and I kind of hate it because it really disincentivizes playing a difficult non-conference schedule.)

Sun Belt East– Georgia Southern (The Sun Belt is the last FBS league to hold on to its division format so we have two different title races going on in this league.  The East race is by far the more intriguing of the two, as we currently have a tie atop the division standings between Georgia Southern and Marshall at 4-1.  Then, right behind them is Old Dominion and James Madison who are sitting a game behind them at 3-2.  The Eagles of Georgia Southern have three tricky games left against Troy, Coastal Carolina, and App. State, but they still should be favored in all three. I am thus predicting GSU to win out and take the division crown by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker they own over Marshall.  Even if Georgia Southern drops one of their final three contests, they still will likely clinch a division crown because they also own the head-to-head tiebreaker over James Madison.  Therefore, as long as Old Dominion loses one of its three games, then GSU will need to just win two of its final three to earn a spot in the Sun Belt Championship Game.)      

Sun Belt West– UL-Lafayette (The least intriguing conference/division title race is in the Sun Belt West, as the Ragin’ Cajuns of Louisiana have all but locked up a spot in the conference championship game.  This squad has a two game lead over the rest of the division and also owns the head to head tiebreaker over all of the two loss teams: Texas State, Arkansas State, and South Alabama. Therefore, all the Ragin’ Cajuns need to do is win one of their final three games and they will clinch the Sun Belt West title.)  

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In addition to my usual analysis above of every conference/division title race, I am going to rank each race based on the intrigue each provides and the importance each holds in the overall college football landscape.  Here are my current rankings of all 10 of the division/conference championship races:

1. SEC (between Tennessee, Texas A & M, Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU)
2. Big 12 (between BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas State, Arizona State, and West Virginia)
3. ACC (between SMU, Miami-FL, Clemson, Louisville, and Pittsburgh)
4. American (between Army, Tulane, Navy, Memphis, and East Carolina)
5. Mountain West (between Boise State, Colorado State, UNLV, and San Jose State)
6. Big Ten (between Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, and Penn State)
7. MAC (between Miami-OH, Ohio, Bowling Green, Western Michigan, Buffalo, and Toledo)
8. Sun Belt East (between Georgia Southern, Marshall, James Madison, and Old Dominion)
9. Conference USA (between Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Sam Houston, and Liberty)
10. Sun Belt West (between UL-Lafayette, Texas State, Arkansas State, South Alabama, and UL-Monroe)