The most comprehensive analysis of college football bowl eligibility is back!  For the 15th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid, not necessarily a team’s off of actually being invited to a bowl game.  That is because some years there are more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids and several bowl eligible teams don’t get to go bowling.  Other years, there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill every bowl game, so 5-7 teams are invited to bowl games based on their APR. ).

All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 57 teams on the list with 28 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 29 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 81 bowl eligible teams for 2024 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 82 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am calling for one 5-7 team to make it to a bowl game this season.  This list is updated through all games played on November 11th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (28):

Miami-Ohio- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kent State, vs. Northern Illinois, at Bowling Green; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98%

Buffalo- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs Ball State, at Eastern Michigan, vs. Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 94%

Arkansas- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs Texas, vs. Louisiana Tech, at Missouri; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 92%

Texas State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern Miss, vs. Georgia State, at South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 91%

California- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Syracuse, vs. Stanford, at SMU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 89%

Northern Illinois- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Akron, at Miami-Ohio, vs. Central Michigan ; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 88%

Bowling Green- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Western Michigan, at Ball State, vs. Miami-OH; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 86%

North Carolina- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wake Forest, at BC, vs. NC State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 84%

Michigan- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northwestern, at Ohio State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 80%

East Carolina- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Tulsa, at North Texas, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 74%

Western Michigan- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Bowling Green, at Central Michigan, vs. Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 73%

Baylor- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at West Virginia, at Houston, vs. Kansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 72%

Virginia Tech- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Duke, vs. Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 69%

North Texas- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at UTSA, vs, East Carolina, at Temple; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67%

Arkansas State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia State, vs. UL-Monroe, vs. Old Dominion; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65%

West Virginia- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Baylor, vs. UCF, at Texas Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64%

Rutgers- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Maryland, vs. Illinois, at Michigan State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62%

Coastal Carolina- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Marshall, vs. Georgia Southern, at Georgia State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61%

South Florida- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Charlotte, vs. Tulsa, at Rice; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60%

Nebraska- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Southern Cal, vs. Wisconsin, at Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59%

Wisconsin- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oregon, at Nebraska, vs. Minnesota; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58%

Michigan State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Illinois, vs. Purdue, vs. Rutgers; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 57%

Boston College- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at SMU, vs. North Carolina, vs. Pittsburgh; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56%

Eastern Michigan- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio, vs. Buffalo, at Western Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55%

Cincinnati- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Iowa State, at Kansas State, vs. TCU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54%

Washington- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UCLA, at Oregon; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53%

Southern Cal- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Nebraska, at UCLA, vs. Notre Dame; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52%

Fresno State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Colorado State, at UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51%

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (29):

UL-Monroe- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Auburn, at Arkansas State, vs. UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49%

Old Dominion- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. James Madison, vs. Marshall, at Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47%

NC State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia Tech, at North Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46%

UTSA- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. North Texas, vs. Temple, at Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44%

UCLA- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Washington, vs. Southern Cal, vs. Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42%

Oregon State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Air Force, vs. Washington State, at Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41%

Maryland- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin, vs. Iowa, at Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40%

South Alabama- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at UL-Lafayette, at Southern Miss, vs. Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39%

Virginia- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Notre Dame, vs. SMU, at Virginia Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38%

Utah- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Colorado, vs. Iowa State, at UCF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37%

Houston- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Arizona, vs. Baylor, at BYU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36%

Charlotte- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Florida, at Florida Atlantic, vs. UAB; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35%

Appalachian State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. James Madison, at Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34%

UCF- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at West Virginia, vs. Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33%

Florida- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. LSU, vs. Ole Miss, at Florida State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32%

Kansas- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at BYU, vs. Colorado, at Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 31%

Oklahoma- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Alabama, at LSU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29%

Arizona- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Houston, at TCU, vs. Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25%

FIU- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Jacksonville State, at Kennesaw State, vs. Middle Tenn; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21%

Wake Forest- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at North Carolina, at Miami-FL, vs. Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18%

New Mexico- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Washington State, at Hawaii; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15%

Tulsa- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. East Carolina, at South Florida, vs. Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 12%

Northwestern- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio State, at Michigan, vs. Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10%

Kentucky- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Murray State, at Texas, vs. Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 9%

Ball State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Buffalo, vs. Bowling Green, at Ohio; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 8%

San Diego State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at UNLV, vs. Utah State, vs. Air Force; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7%

Central Michigan- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Toledo, vs. Western Michigan, at Northern Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6%

Auburn- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Monroe, vs. Texas A & M, at Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4%

Louisiana Tech- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Western Kentucky, at Arkansas, vs. Kennesaw State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2%

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Already Bowl Eligible (53): (1) Clemson, (2) Duke, (3) Georgia Tech, (4) Louisville, (5) Miami-FL, (6) Pittsburgh, (7) SMU, (8) Syracuse, (9) Army, (10) Memphis, (11) Navy, (12) Tulane, (13) Illinois, (14) Indiana, (15) Iowa, (16) Minnesota, (17) Ohio State (18) Oregon, (19) Penn State, (20) Arizona State, (21) BYU, (22) Colorado, (23) Iowa State, (24) Kansas State, (25) TCU, (26) Texas Tech, (27) Uconn, (28) Liberty, (29) Jacksonville State, (30) Sam Houston, (31) Western Kentucky, (32) Ohio, (33) Toledo, (34) Boise State, (35) Colorado State, (36) UNLV, (37) San Jose State, (38) Washington State, (39) Alabama, (40) Georgia (41) LSU, (42) Texas, (43) Texas A& M (44) Missouri, (45) Ole Miss, (46) South Carolina, (47) Tennessee, (48) Vanderbilt, (49) Georgia Southern, (50) James Madison, (51) UL-Lafayette, (52) Marshall, (53) Notre Dame

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (24):  (1) Florida State, (2) Stanford, (3) Florida Atlantic, (4) Rice, (5) Temple, (6) UAB, (7) Purdue, (8) Oklahoma State, (9) Kennesaw State, (10) UTEP, (11) Middle Tennessee, (12) New Mexico State, (13) Akron, (14) Kent State, (15) Air Force, (16) Hawaii, (17) Nevada, (18) Utah State, (19) Wyoming, (20) Mississippi State, (21) Georgia State, (22) Troy, (23) Southern Miss, (24) UMass

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Current Stats (134 FBS Teams):

Already Bowl Eligible: 53

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 28  (81)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 24

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 29 (53)