Brad’s 2026 College Football Preview: Regular Season Upset Picks

Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season. This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few weeks to publish my 20th annual college football preview guide which will contain 20 entries in all. Over the past decade or, I have made my college football offseason more expansive by predicting the outcome of every single game that is played by every FBS team over the course of the entire regular season season. I obviously sprinkle a few upsets in there when favored teams matchup poorly with inferior opponents or play them at inopportune times. Last season, I picked 15 correct upsets in this entry including most notably Ohio over West Virginia, Tulane over Duke, Memphis over Arkansas, and Virginia over Florida State. This year’s upset picks are listed below in chronological order, and the 10 upset picks that will be the most impactful to the college football playoff picture are marked in bold. Also, the (H), (A), and (N) monikers written on each line represents whether or not the the team pulling off the upset is playing the game at home, away from home, or at a neutral site. I have also included my reasons why each upset is going to happen in parentheses next to each pick.

Preseason Upset Picks of the Year
1Tulsa over Oklahoma State (H)- Sept 5 (spot, history, location)
2Baylor over Auburn (N)- Sept 5 (matchups, spot)
3Tarleton State over Bowling Green (A)- Sept 5 (history, spot)
4Montana State over Nevada (A)- Sept 12 (spot, history)
5Illinois State over Northern Illinois (A)- Sept 12 (history, spot)
6NC State over Vanderbilt (A)- Sept 19 (spot)
7Cal over Clemson (H)- Sept 25 (location, spot)
8Stanford over Georgia Tech (H)- Sept 26 (matchups, location)
9Michigan State over Nebraska (H)- Sept 26 (location, matchups)
10UTEP over Oregon State (H)- Sept 26 (location, matchups)
11TCU over BYU (H)- Oct 3 (location, matchups)
12Iowa over Ohio State (H)- Oct 3 (location, history)
13Clemson over Miami-FL (H)- Oct 3 (location, history)
14Purdue over Minnesota (H)- Oct 10 (spot, location)
15Akron over Eastern Michigan (H)- Oct 10 (spot, location, matchups)
16Northern Illinois over Air Force (H)- Oct 10 (location, spot)
17Fresno State over Boise State (H)- Oct 10 (history, location, spot)
18Missouri over Texas A & M (H)- Oct 10 (matchups, location)
19Arkansas over Tennessee (H)- Oct 10 (history, spot)
20Georgia Southern over James Madison (H)- Oct 10 (spot, matchups, location)
21BYU over Notre Dame (H)- Oct 17 (location, history)
22Sacramento State over Ohio (H)- Oct 17 (spot, location)
23UCF over BYU (H)- Oct 24 (location, spot)
24Auburn over LSU (H)- Oct 24 (spot, history)
25Charlotte over Tulane (H)- Oct 30 (spot, matchups)
26Maryland over Illinois (H)- Oct 31 (spot, location, matchups)
27Florida over Oklahoma (H)- Nov 7 (spot, location)
28Ole Miss over Georgia (H)- Nov 7 (spot, location, history)
29Nevada over New Mexico (H)- Nov 7 (history, location, spot)
30UTEP over Hawaii (H)- Nov 7 (location, matchups, spot)
31New Mexico State over Liberty (H)- Nov 7 (spot, location)
32Boston College over Florida State (H)- Nov 7 (spot, location, history)
33Ball State over Buffalo (H)- Nov 11 (history, matchups, location)
34Ole Miss over Oklahoma (A)- Nov 14 (history, matchups)
35Baylor over Texas Tech (H)- Nov 21 (location, spot)
36Washington over Indiana (H)- Nov 21 (location, matchups)
37Nebraska over Ohio State (H)- Nov 21 (location, spot)
38North Carolina over Virginia (A)- Nov 21 (history, matchups)
39Tulsa over UTSA (A)- Nov 28 (matchups)
40Kentucky over Louisville (H)- Nov 28 (spot, location)

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