Week 6 Football Upsets to Watch Out For

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current lines at the Caesars Sportsbook.

Iowa (+3.5) at Illinois- 7:30– The Illini are one of the Cinderella stories of the year right now in college football, but Iowa, despite their offensive woes, still has superior talent when compared to the Illini.
BYU (+3.5) vs. Notre Dame- 7:30– Everyone thought Notre Dame was complete trash a few weeks ago, and BYU was a dark horse contender to make the college football playoff. Now that narrative has completely flipped thanks to a couple of good Irish performances and a laid egg by BYU in Autzen. Nevertheless, I still think the Cougars have the more explosive offense here, and unlike UNC, BYU can match Notre Dame’s physicality at and around the line of scrimmage.
FIU (+5.5) vs. UConn- 7:00– There are two horrible teams that picked up monumental wins last week. Which team can produce their first two game winning streak in years? I will go with the home team.
UNLV (+6.5) at San Jose State– (Fri) 10:30- Shockingly, these teams appear to be the top two in the West Division of the Mountain West Conference right now. The Spartans should be favored at home here, but the Rebels are the Group of 5’s version of Kansas that seems to thrive on disproving doubters every week.
Kansas (+6.5) vs. TCU– 12:00- Speaking of Kansas, can the Jayhawk magic continue? TCU has been a surprise team themselves this season, but I think Sonny Dykes’ group will lay an egg sometime soon, and it just might come Saturday in Lawrence.
NY Giants (+8.0) vs. Green Bay- (Sun) 9:30 AM– It seems like these NFL Europe games are always tight, low-scoring affairs that often produce surprise results. I picked the Giants to pull off this upset in the preseason, and I am sticking with it.
Arkansas (+9.0) at Mississippi State- 12:00– The ground and pound style of the Hogs is a bad matchup for Leach’s Air Raid, demonstrated by the fact that Arkansas has won both meetings between these teams since Leach and Pittman took over their respective programs in 2020.
Oklahoma (+9.0) vs. Texas- 12:00– No matter how good or bad each of these teams look coming into this game, the Red River Rivalry is always a tight battle filled with many twists and turns. Expect nothing less this season, as it would not surprise me at all to see the Sooners squeak out an upset here.
Middle Tennessee (+9.5) at UAB- 3:30– The Blue Raiders are much better than expected this season, while the Blazers are definitively worse. UAB probably still has more talent here, but Middle Tennessee is 2-0 on the road this season and the Blazers just lost to a Rice team that is certainly worse than MTSU.
Army (+16.5) at Wake Forest- 7:30– The Black Knights are absolutely the worst team to play coming off a big victory, as their triple option attack can destroy a defense that is not fully focused on the task at hand. That is especially true for a mediocre to bad Wake Forest defense that got lit up for 56 points in West Point last season.

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Purdue (+12.5) over Minnesota (My double-digit longshot pick of the week hit!)


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