Week 14 College Football (Against the Spread) Picks

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident. Lines are based on the current spreads at the Caesars Sportsbook.

Boise State (-3.0) vs. Fresno State- 4:00– I realize that Jake Haener didn’t play in the first meeting between these two teams, but Haener had nothing to do with the fact the Broncos offense gashed the Fresno defense on the ground en route to a 40-20 victory. Fresno will make some adjustments and this matchup will be closer than the first meeting, but Boise should still win this one by at least a touchdown.
North Texas (+8.5) at UTSA- (Fri) 7:30– This exact game at the same location was a four point thriller earlier in the season. As they always say, it is tough to beat a good team twice in the season season, and I think the Roadrunners may fall victim to that tonight.
Southern Cal (-2.5) vs. Utah- (Fri) 8:00– The Trojans are in a great revenge spot, as Utah was quite lucky to win the first meeting in Salt Lake City in front of a raucous home crowd which they will be missing tonight. The Utes will keep it close, but USC should take this one by at least a field goal.
Troy (-8.0) vs. Coastal Carolina- 3:30– The build up for this game has been focused around the health of Coastal’s quarterback Grayson McCall. The Chants looked absolutely miserable without him last week in a blowout loss against James Madison, and at this point I don’t see McCall being healthy enough to both play and be effective against the Trojans on Saturday.
Toledo (-3.0) vs. Ohio- 12:00– The Bobcats are on fire right now, whereas, Toledo really struggled down the stretch of the season. With that being said, the Rockets clinched this division a long time ago so they didn’t have much to play for in their final few games. They will be much more motivated and focused in this one, and I am also going to lean on the historical significance of the fact that Ohio has not won a conference championship since 1968.
TCU (-1.5) vs. Kansas State- 12:00– Everyone keeps waiting for the Horned Frogs to lose, but they keep finding ways to win games. I think this will be another close one for TCU, but until the magical fairy dust wears off, I am going pick the Frogs to win and advance to their first-ever College Football Playoff.
UCF (+4.0) at Tulane- 4:00– I will be attending this game in-person tomorrow, so I will find out first hand if this upset occurs. UCF already beat Tulane on the road by a touchdown earlier this season, and despite the injury to their quarterback Plumlee, they have the firepower to do it again. I ultimately think there is a better chance than not that Tulane gets the payback victory tomorrow, but four points is too many.
Purdue (+16.0) at Michigan- 8:00– On paper, the Wolverines should roll over the Boilermakers, but you have to factor in the Jeff Brohm effect, as the Purdue coach has a perfect 3-0 record against top three teams during his tenure there. Michigan is also in a prime letdown spot after their huge road win over Ohio State last weekend. I think the Wolverines ultimately win this one, but Purdue will keep it relatively close.
Georgia (-17.5) vs. LSU- 4:00– The Bulldogs are going to be ultra-focused in this one after the egg they laid in this game last year and their disappointment first half performance against Georgia Tech last Saturday.
Clemson (-7.5) vs. North Carolina- 8:00– The Heels have collapsed down the stretch of the season with back-to-back losses to Georgia Tech and NC State. The Jackets, Wolfpack, and Fighting Irish were all able to beat UNC by being more physical at the line of scrimmage. Clemson should be to achieve the same results on Saturday, as this seems to be a bad matchup for the Tar Heels.

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