Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season. This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 20th annual college football preview guide which will contain 20 entries in all. The records below reflect each team’s predicted regular season overall record followed by their conference record. These records include conference title games but exclude bowl games, which will be previewed later on in a separate column on this blog. The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to gain bowl eligibility this season and the one marked in italics is my predicted conference champion.. Without further ado, here are my predictions for Mountain West Conference in 2026, which is taking a major step back this season after having its best teams plundered by the revamped Pac-12.

1	UNLV (11-2, 6-2)– conference champion

Last Year’s Record: 10-4 (My 2025 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Memphis (August 29)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Hawaii (September 5)- very difficult week 1 road matchup after having to play in a tough week 0 contest

Bottom Line: Dan Mullen did a tremendous job of sustaining Barry Odom’s success in his first year at the the helm in Sin City. This year the expectations will be greater, but the competition will be lesser, as UNLV no longer has to contend with Boise State who has moved on to the Pac-12 after handing the Rebs two out of their four losses in 2025. The Lobos of New Mexico will be the biggest obstacle for UNLV in its quest for its first conference title since 1994, and I am predicting that UNM wins the regular season matchup at home between the two but the Rebels get revenge in the title game to win this year’s Mountain West crown.

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2	New Mexico (9-4, 6-2)

Last Year’s Record: 10-4 (My 2025 prediction: 3-9)- like most experts, I greatly underestimated Jason Eck’s team last year

Positional Strength: Defensive Backfield

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UNLV (November 14)- the Lobos beat the Rebels on the road last season so they should be able to take care of them at home in 2026

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Nevada (November 7)- the Wolf Pack just seem to have the Lobos number as Nevada has won 5 of the past 7 meetings between the teams including last year’s matchup in Albuquerque.

Bottom Line: Jason Eck hasn’t gotten nearly enough credit for leading this perennial doormat to its first winning season in 9 years and to the brink of a Mountain West title game appearance. I believe Eck earns that title game appearance in 2026 with a returning quarterback and ten other key starters from last year’s squad. However, as stated above, it is difficult to beat a good team twice in the same season, so I think UNLV ultimately knocks off the Lobos in the Mountain West Championship Game this December.

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3	Hawaii (8-4, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record:  9-4 (My 2025 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UNLV (September 5)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at UTEP (November 7)- the Rainbow Warriors have lost six straight road games coming off a bye!

Bottom Line: Now a full-time Mountain West member after years as a football-only member, Hawaii is coming off a breakthrough 9-4 season under fifth-year coach Timmy Chang that was bookended by wins over Stanford andCal. Sophomore quarterback Micah Alejado led the conference in passing yardage as a freshman and returns with top targets Pofele Ashlock and Tama Uiliata. However, concerns at offensive line and in the secondary preclude me from picking this team to take another step forward in 2026.

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T-4	Wyoming (7-5, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record:  4-8 (My 2025 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Defensive Backfield

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. New Mexico (November 21)- Laramie is a menacing place to play in November

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at North Dakota State (October 3)- difficult trap game with NDSU coming off a bye the week before

Bottom Line: After back-to-back disappointing seasons to begin Jay Sawvel’s tenure in Laramie, I am predicting the Cowboys to turn things around in 2026. The Cowboys return 28 lettermen from last year’s squad while also bringing in a bevy of talented transfers including senior quarterback Tyler Hughes, who arrives from William & Mary. I also think this is the year that we’ll see the payoff from this program’s 2024 recruiting class which ranked # 1 amongst current Mountain West teams. All in all, Wyoming should find itself back in a bowl game at the end of this season.

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T-4	Nevada (7-5, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 3-9 (My 2025 prediction: 2-10)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. New Mexico (November 7)- the Wolf Pack just seem to have the Lobos number as Nevada has won 5 of the past 7 meetings between the teams including last year’s matchup in Albuquerque.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Montana State (September 12)

Bottom Line: This once prominent Mountain West powerhouse has fallen on hard times as of late, as the Wolf Pack have not won more than three games in a season since 2021. Nevertheless, the Wolf Pack are on my list of national surprise teams for 2026, as I am calling them to return to a bowl game this season. Nevada retains two all conference offensive tackles and a brings back its starting quarterback and stud running back Herschel Turner who averaged over five yards a carry last season. They also have a relatively manageable schedule that features three very winnable non-conference games Expect the Wolf Pack to make a big jump in year 2 under Jeff Choate.

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6	Air Force (7-5, 4-4)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2025 prediction: 8-4)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver (this should be the # 1 weakness for every wishbone team in the country)

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Navy (October 3)- the Falcons lost a heartbreakers to both Army and Navy last season, so they will be out for revenge in their Commander-in-chief games in 2026.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Northern Illinois (October 10)- classic trap game that falls between home matchups against Navy and UNLV

Bottom Line: Troy Calhoun is too good of a coach for the Falcons not to bounce back after back-to-back losing seasons in Colorado Springs. Not many teams in the country return their starting quarterback (pictured above), top two rushers, and eight of their nine leading tacklers from 2025. The continuity of this squad should make up for any talent deficiencies they maypossess. Expect Air Force to find its way back into a bowl game in 2026.

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7	North Dakota State (6-6, 3-5)

Last Year’s Record: 12-1 (My 2025 prediction: N/A)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Jacksonville State (August 29)- huge home opener for the Bison in their first game as an FBS member

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at San Jose State (November 28)

Bottom Line: Like I said in my analysis for Sacramento State (see MAC preview article), I am not getting burned again by picking the FBS newcomers to falter in their first year transitioning from FCS. That especially holds true for North Dakota State who has had been the most prominent FCS program to join the FBS over the past few seasons. Overall, the Bison will be stout defensively and able to run the ball effectively while also possessing a very manageable schedule that features four winnable non-conference games and home conference matchups against the league’s lesser foes. All in all, don’t be surprised if the Bison reach a bowl game in their inaugural FBS season.

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8	UTEP (5-7, 3-5)

Last Year’s Record: 2-10 (My 2025 prediction: 4-8)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Oregon State (September 26)- long non-conference road trip for the Beavers

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Nevada (October 10)

Bottom Line: I believe this is the year we finally see some progress from the charismatic Scotty Walden (pictured above) and his Miners. I am not ready to pick them to be bowl eligible just yet, but now that they are in a more geographically favorable conference and bring in a proven quarterback in Incarnate Word’s E.J. Colson, expect the Miners to surprise some people in 2026 and pull off a couple of upsets that no one sees coming.

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9	San Jose State (4-8, 2-6)

Last Year’s Record: 3-9 (My 2025 prediction: 10-3)- I certainly missed the boat on my prediction for the Spartans last year!

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Hawaii (October 3)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at UTEP (October 17)

Bottom Line: It has been an up-and-down first couple of seasons in Ken Niumatalolo’s tenure in San Jose, as his Spartans were a surprise bowl team in 2024 and then backed that up with a disappointing 3-9 campaign in 2025. The success of this year’s season should fall between those two extremes, but with 11 new starters on defense, a new quarterback, and the departure of the team’s top two rushers, and top five receivers from 2025, I just can’t pick this team to get back to a bowl game in 2026.

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10	Northern Illinois (1-11, 1-7)

Last Year’s Record: 3-9 (My 2025 prediction: 8-4)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Hawaii (October 3)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at UTEP (October 17)

Bottom Line: Of all the conference transitions that so many schools have made over the past few years, NIU’s move to the Mountain West may be the most puzzling. I guess this new league is still slightly stronger than the MAC, but NIU was having difficulty winning games in the Mid-American Conference last season and now they enter a tougher league and face a much more rigorous travel schedule. The Huskies are also starting over this season with a new head coach, new quarterback, and 11 new defensive starters. Expect a rough rebuilding year this season in DeKalb.

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